GAS ADJUSTMENTS EFFECTIVE APRIL 1, 2007c.
RFCEI 1 `®
CLEARWATER GAS SYSTEM
Interoffice Correspondence Sheet �"� :!` -n
CiJ IClit � " (A; RDS AND
TO: William B. Horne II, City Manager �"`! '`ky`''" DEPT
FROM: Chuck Warrington, Managing Director
COPIES: Rod Irwin, Assistant City Manager; Cyndie Goudeau, City Clerk;
CGS & CCS Management Teams; Janet Dorrough, Sr. Accountant /CGS;
Tom Madley, Sr. Accountant /CCS; Laura Damico, Sr. Accountant /CCS
SUBJECT: GAS ADJUSTMENTS EFFECTIVE APRIL 1, 2007
DATE: March 26, 2007
Even though the Natural Gas markets remain very high historically, they have continued to
stabilize and lower somewhat on the short term. Therefore, we are recommending a decrease
of 20 /therm in our Natural Gas Purchased Gas Adjustments (PGA) at this time, which is a net
reduction of 390 /therm since the January 2006 peak. The Propane supply market is a little
lower also such that we are recommending a decrease of 20 /gallon in our Propane (LP) PGA.
We are not recommending any change in our Energy Conservation Adjustment (ECA), as we
should be very close to caught up with this factor by fiscal year end. We have collected
sufficient $$$ in our Environmental Imposition Adjustment (EIA) such that we are
recommending we turn this off at this time, which is a reduction of 10 /therm or gallon.
Regrettably, from CGS perspective, this has been a Chamber of Commerce very warm
winter. The Heating Degree Days (HDDs) for December and January were the lowest since
the winter of 1971/1972 and the 2nd lowest in our 45 years of recorded history. We are
currently projecting being 24.5% below our 10 year average with HDDs, which triggers
implementation of our Weather Normalization Adjustment (WNA). Therefore, we are
recommending a 30 /therm or gallon WNA beginning April 1St until we recover a projected
$202,341 in lost Non -Fuel Energy Revenues as a result of the warmer than normal weather.
The net effect of these recommended changes is NO CHANGE in our typical Residential
Natural Gas customer's rate and NO CHANGE in our typical Residential LP customer's rate.
Therefore, we are recommending your approval of the following rates to become effective for
billings rendered on and after April 1, 2007:
Natural Gas Firm Standard Rate Schedule PGA ....... $1.15 per therm (down 20 /therm)
Natural Gas Interruptible and Contract
(Non - Standard) Rate Schedule PGA ............. $1.07 per therm (down 20 /therm)
Propane (LP) Gas Rate Schedule PGA .................... $1.49 per gallon (down 20 /gallon)
Energy Conservation Adjustment (ECA) ............... $0.18 per therm or gallon (no change)
William B. Horne II, City Manager
Page 2
March 26, 2007
Environmental Imposition Adjustment (EIA) ......... $0.00 per therm or gallon (down 1 C)
Weather Normalization Adjustment (WNA) .......... $0.03 per therm or gallon (up 30)
Attachment #1 shows the status of our Adjustment Recovery Clause balances with actuals
thru August and projections thru Period 13 of this fiscal year. These show that we are
currently ($939,819) behind on our collections thru February but are projecting recovery of
this by the end of the fiscal year. It is important to our overall financials for FY 06/07 that
we bring this close to balance by Fiscal Year End.
Attachments #2 and #3 show our current annual projections for Natural Gas and LP supply
costs, respectively. Attachment #4 shows our analysis for setting the WNA. Attachments
#5 and #6 show the impact of these adjustment clause changes on our overall Natural and
LP Gas rates, respectively. Attachment #7 shows our rate history over the past 2 + years
and shows our relationship to electric prices.
I should point out that the overall effect is that our typical Residential customer rates are now
45% lower than electric for Natural Gas and 19% lower for LP. These margins have
increased since Progress Energy Florida implemented an increase in their Fuel Adjustment
charges in January. So, we remain in a very competitive position vs. electricity.
It is our plan to use the above - proposed adjustments for billings through September 30,
2007, unless there is a significant change in our forecasts or we project a significant
over /under recovery of our adjustment clauses. We will continue to track these balances
monthly, make monthly projections of these factors based on market conditions, and let you
know if any of these get significantly out of balance.
Bill, I would appreciate your approval of these revised adjustment rates so we can get this
information to CCS in order to make the appropriate adjustments in the billing formulas in
time for the April 1 st billings. If you have any questions on this, please call me.
CSW /csw
Attachments
Approved: A2A� ��-
William B. Horne Il, City Manager
U: \My Documents \MSOFFICE \WINWORD \GASRATES \Gas Adjustments for April 2007.doc
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CSW3/26r"7 Attachment #
Residential Rate History By Components
Clearwater
Gas
Svstem
Total
Rate
Com onents/Therm
I
Contract
LP
Month
NG/therm
LP/ allon *
ECA
EIA
WNA
PGA
PGA
PGA/ allon
Oct -04
$ 1.710
$ 2.030
$ 0.100
$ -
$ -
$ 1.030
$ 0.960
$ 1.130
Nov -04
$ 1.710
$ 2.030
$ 0.100
$ -
$
$ 1.030
$ 0.960
$ 1.130
Dec-04
$ 1.750
$ 2.090
$ 0.100
$ -
$ -
$ 1.070
$ 1.000
$ 1.190
Jan -05
$ 1.750
$ 2.090
$ 0.100
$ -
$
$ 1.070
$ 1.000
$ 1.190
Feb -05
$ 1.830
$ 2.150
$ 0.130
$ -
$ 0.010
$ 1.110
$ 1.040
$ 1.210
Mar -05
$ 1.860
$ 2.180
1 $ 0.130
$0.0201
$ 0.020
$ 1.1101
$ 1.040
$ 1.210
Apr-05
$ 1.860
$ 2.280
$ 0.130
$0.0201
$ 0.020
$ 1.1101
$ 1.040
$ 1.210
May -05
$ 1.790
$ 2.190
$ 0.130
$ 0.020
$ -
$ 1.0601
$ 0.990
$ 1.140
Jun -05
$ 1.790
$ 2.190
$ 0.130
$ 0.020
$ -
$ 1.060 1
$ 0.990
$ 1.140
Jul -05
$ 1.790
$ 2.190
$ 0.130
$ 0.020
$ -
$ 1.0601
$ 0.990
$ 1140
Aug -05
$ 1.820
$ 2.220
$ 0.140
$ 0.020
$ -
$ 1.080
$ 1.010
$ 1.160
Sep -05
$ 1.970
$ 2.300
$ 0.140
$ 0.020
$ -
$ 1.230
$ 1.160
$ 1.240
FY 04105 Avg.
1.803
$ 2.162
0.122
0.012
$ 0.004
1.085
1.015
1.174
2004 Avg.
$ 1.652
$ 1.968
T 0.123
-
-
$ 0.949
0.879
1.046
Oct -05
$ 2.190
$ 2.530
$ 0.120
$ 0.020
$ -
$ 1.470
$ 1.390
$ 1.490
Nov -05
$ 2.190
$ 2.530
$ 0.120
$ 0.020
$ -
$ 1.470
$ 1.390
$ 1.490
Deo-05
$ 2.260
$ 2.490
$ 0.120
$ 0.020
$
$ 1.540
$ 1.460
$ 1.450
Jan -06
$ 2.260
$ 2.490
$ 0.120
$ 0.020
$ -
$ 1.540
$ 1.460
$ 1.450
Feb -06
$ 2.220
$ 2.460
$ 0.160
$ 0.010
$ -
$ 1.470
$ 1.390
$ 1.390
Mar -06
$ 2.2201
$ 2.460
$ 0.160
$ 0.010
$
$ 1.470
$ 1.390
$ 1.390
Apr -06
$ 2.110
$ 2.320
$ 0.170
$ 0.010
$ -
$ 1.350
$ 1.270
$ 1.240
May -06
$ 1.960
$ 2.360
$ 0.170
$ 0.010
$ -
$ 1.200
$ 1.120
$ 1.280
Jun -06
$ 1.920
$ 2.420
$ 0.180
$ 0.010
$ -
$ 1.150
$ 1.070
$ 1.330
Jul -06
$ 1.910
$ 2.500
$ 0.200
$ 0.010
$
$ 1.120
$ 1.040
$ 1.390
Aug -06
$ 1.860
$ 2.600
$ 0.200
$-d-.-010
$ -
$ 1.070
$ 0.990
$ 1.490
Sep -06
$ 1.860
$ 2.600
$ 0.200
$ 0.010
$ -
$ 1.070
$ 0.990
$ 1.490
FY 05106 Avg.
2.080
$ 2.480
0.160
0.013
$ -
$ 1.327
$ 1.247
$ 1 A07
2005 Avg.
$ 1.925
2.278
0.127
If 0.017
-r O-.004
1.198
$ 1.125
$ 1.256
Oct -06
$ 1.940
$ 2.600
$ 0.180
$ 0.010
$ -
$ 1.170
$ 1.090
$ 1.510
Nov -06
$ 1.940
$ 2.600
$ 0.180
$ 0.010
$ -
$ 1.170
$ 1.090
$ 1.510
Dec -06
$ 1.940
$ 2.600
$ 0.180
$ 0.010
$ ---t
1.170
$ 1.090
$ 1.510
Jan -07
$ 1.940
$ 2.600
$ 0.180
$ 0.010
$ -
$ 1.170
$ 1.090
$ 1.510
Feb -07
$ 1.940
$ 2.600
$ 0.180
$ 0.010
$
$ 1.170
$ 1.090
$ 1.510
Mar -07
$ 1.940
$ 2.600
$ 0.180
$ 0.010
$ -
$ 1.170
$ 1.090
$ 1.510
Apr-07
$ 1.940
$ 2.600
$ 0.180
$ -
$ 0.030
$ 1.150
$ 1.070
$ 1.490
May-07
Jun -07
Jul -07
Aug -07
Sep -07
FY 06/07 Avg.
$ 1.940
$ 2.600
$ 0.180
$ 0.009
$ 0.004
$ 1.167
$ 1.087
$ 1.507
2006 Avg.
$ 2.012
$ 2.501
$ 0.175
$ 0.011
$ -
1.246
$ 1.166
$ 1.415
Incr. Above
$ (0.170)
$ 0.280
$ 0.010
$ 0.010
$ 0.030
$ 0.200
$ 0.200)
$ 0.250
Last Year
Same Month
-60/6
12%
6%
-100%
#DIV /01
-15%
-16%
20%
Incr. Based
$ 3.40
$ 6.12
on 20 Therms
-7%
11%
Equivalent
_
Cents/KWH
6.6
9.7
for Gas
-
Vs. FPC Rate
12.0
12.0
Note: This includes Progress Ener y 's increase in January 2007.
Residential
--
Gas Chea er
--
-
-
by
-45%
-19 °/s
Note: Added $1 per month to Monthly Customer Charge
for NG & LP effective 4/1/2005
Notes:
- --
- --
Based on Bulk
LP BRLP3 which is applicable for customers using 120.1 - 300 gallons/ ear 8 e ual to Residential LP Will Call BRWCLP .