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ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY . e . KALSON & ASSOCIATES ;~Clearwater '."."","",~.','.."'..'...."",.'..'..,."..,.:,........"........'..,'....'.. ,_.,,', ---'" , ,"",:"'; " , CITY OF CLEARWATER ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY -_.,-_.~~-------_._,~--_._-,-_._------_.__.__._.~-----.._--"--~----~.--,------_.~~---~--,._-- MARCH 14, 2005 1105 TAYLORSVILLE ROAD SUITE A WASHINGTON CROSSING, PA. 18977 215.968.6851 . . . CITY OF CLEARWATER ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY TABLE OF CONTENTS Tab Executive Summary........................................................................................................................................ 1 Detailed Report.. ....... .............. ...... ............... ...... ............ .... ........ .... ...................... ................... ........................ 2 . . . Background Supporting Information Explanation of Output Pages from the Three Modeling Runs Key Findings, Recommendations, Limitations ............................ ............................ ................ .................. 3 Output Pages for Unconstrained Modeling Run....................................................................................... 4 Output Pages for Modeling Run #3............................................................................................................5 Output Pages for Modeling Run #4............................................................................................................6 KALSON & ASSOCIATES Tab 1 CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 . 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The main purpose of this study was to determine the allocation targets for the City of Clearwater Pension Fund. While the Trustees currently have allocation targets in place, it has been over 10 years since the last such formal study. Starting with the current allocation levels, how should those levels change when considering future capital markets? Whether to project today's market volatility into the future is another related issue. We expected the modeling to show the net benefit of higher equity allocation and diversification within some asset classes that the City of Clearwater currently does not invest in. However, we were also guided by common sense and a "first things first" attitude regarding any recommended changes. These are critical retirement vehicles for the plan participants. Therefore, these allocation decisions are vitally important. Likewise, adjustments for the risk tolerance of Trustees are just as important. To fail to make such adjustments would eradicate an otherwise useful recommendation. :. The model had three key inputs: 1. Five-year expected returns of relevant asset classes; 2. Expected volatility (defined as standard deviation risk) around the average expected returns; and 3. Expected relationships (correlation) between pairs of asset classes as they fluctuate in the marketplace over time. (See correlation chart at the end of section 1) Since model outputs are only as good as the inputs, we tapped several reputable sources for these inputs. Return and risk forecasts were gathered from several investment managers we respect. Kalson & Associates (K&A) made successive, but minor adjustments to these forecasts to achieve a more rational set of outcomes. Regarding cross-correlations, these relationships change slowly. Keeping the slow- changing nature of correlations in mind, we examined la-year historical relationships among the various asset classes. We also gathered data from investment professionals regarding their opinion of future correlations. As markets become more global and information-transfer increases, we believe that asset class correlations will change more substantially over time. Overall, we fused historical and forecasted correlations with slight K&A biases to arrive at our assumptions. The model then takes these inputs and processes them to develop an efficient set of outputs. Given a certain risk level, what is the highest possible combined return that . could be obtained? Alternatively, given a specific return, what is the lowest risk KALSON & ASSOCIATES CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 outcome? Each run of the model tries approximately 1,000 combinations of asset .' classes. Either way, the model blends those asset classes having the lowest correlation to each other. One output chart plots the combinations on a graph labeled "Feasible Region". The Y axis is expected return. The X axis is the risk level. The plot looks like a scatter diagram with the top points forming an elliptical line. When you are on that line, called the efficient frontier, you have reached the optimum return for a given risk or lowest risk for a given return. Our most important recommendations are: . invest the assets a bit more aggressively with approximately 70% equity from the current 60%-65% target . create accounts in the following "new" asset classes that Clearwater is currently not invested in: . REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) Portfolio . Small Cap Growth Portfolio . Emerging Market Equity Portfolio . Mid-Cap Value Portfolio The remaining pages explain the process of the study in more detail. They also specify the sources for the model inputs. In the end, the input decisions are only judgment calls. However, the forecasts appear reasonable and were not designed to materially influence the outputs and recommendations. At the end of the report, there, is a discussion of the limitations and overriding assumptions applicable to the study. . This modeling effort was performed at a moment in time. One year, two years, and certainly three years from now, capital markets will have changed. We strongly encourage another informal look along the way. . 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CIl CIl ... W > ,- c "'CD>->'~>>~a.a. oe>::J ~rn.r.30000~~ ~CI)CDLL E o>.QlCJoooo""w~<( E CD ('I)<(I wO 000 0;;: o;;:LL o>ww 0) "-"-NC\l..:::..:::<( " C C C ~ _ _ _ _ _ _ w .c c c CD CIlCllCll------- -CIlCll E E Ew CD CD CD CD CD CD_ e>E EI .r. .r. .r.<( a::: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ OCl)E CD .r. .r. a. CD CD CD ::J::J::J::J::J::J CDCDoel ....J....J....Jza:::a:::a:::a:::a:::a:::~w....J....JCI) Tab 2 CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 . 2. BACKGROUND It has been over 10 years since the Trustees of the City of Clear\Vater Pension Fund have taken a serious look at the future of capital markets, utilizing an asset allocation study. At some point, we can expect interest rates to rise, oil prices to stabilize, the equity markets to find some stability, etc. For all these reasons, as well as fiduciary responsibility, the Trustees authorized an asset allocation study. We grappled with capital market expectations and the relaxing of constraints. Further, we layered in our biases, including: higher equity, if risk is contained projected outperformance of non-S&P stocks value-added and increased liquidity of REITs vs. privately-held real estate rising price movement correlation between U.S. and non-U.S. equities relatively high REIT price movement correlation with small-cap stocks continuing belief that alternative asset classes (e.g. venture capital) were inappropriate to consider at this time. Kalson & Associates introduced the following asset classes into the model: 1. Large Cap Growth Domestic Equity 2. Large Cap Value Domestic Equity 3. Mid Cap Growth Domestic Equity 4. Mid Cap Value Domestic Equity 5. Small Cap Growth Domestic Equity 6. Small Cap Value Domestic Equity 7. REITs 8. International Equity 9. 90-day Treasury Bills 10. Aggregate Bonds 11. Emerging Market Equity 12. International Soverign 13. Emerging Market Debt 14. Hedge Funds 15. High Yield Bonds -- KALSON & ASSOCIATES CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 Omitted were venture capital, private equity, commodities, and other alternative investments. Moreover, in almost all of the runs, the allocation software did not allocate to 90-Day T-Bills, so we tended to zero-out the allocation to this asset class. . Starting with the current fund allocations, we introduced several alternative scenarios. The best way to judge whether an alternative scenario "works" is to look for a combination of 1) higher expected returns; 2) lower expected risk; 3) Trustee comfort with scenario constraints (e.g. no more than x% REITs); and 4) common sense allocations. Run 1 was a most interesting scenario because it was "unconstrained"; we did not constrain any asset class under consideration. Arguably, the outcome was highly suspect. The 8.2% expected return is higher than the actual portfolio's current 7.0%; but the offset is a 12.4% standard deviation vs. 9.5%. Moreover, the 42% allocation to REITs is far too concentrated, as is the 34% allocation to mid-cap growth stocks. In reality, a negative performance year for REITs (such as 1998) could easily occur again. Such an allocation, no matter how enticing from a return perspective, is just impractical. We have modeled a succession of allocation runs. The process involved placing mild, then strong constraints on several asset classes, then determining if the return/risk scenarios and asset class allocations made sense. In all, we ran . approximately 10 runs, but we would like to focus on Runs 3 and 4, as we believe . these runs give us the best return/risk tradeoff, with allocations that make "common sense". In Run 3, we implemented constraints on many of the asset classes. We reduced our maximum allowable REIT exposure to 15% and EAFE (international developed equity markets) to 10% and also required at least a modicum of bonds (30% minimum with a 45% maximum). Further, we looked at the current City of Clearwater allocation and tried to work that layout into the scenario so as to avoid a complete overhaul of asset classes. For instance, we placed minimums of 10% in large-cap growth and large-cap value, and placed 5% minimums on small-cap value, and both mid-cap growth and value. The results of this run were good, in our opinion. Of the 11 portfolios generated by the allocation software, we chose to focus on portfolio #9, which provided a 7.3% expected return, and a 10.2% risk (standard deviation). For reference, the current Clearwater allocation projects to a 7.0% expected return with a 9.5% risk (standard deviation). 'Ibis portfolio suggests adding four assets classes that are currently not in the City of Clearwater allocation: REITs, Small Cap Domestic Growth stocks, Mid- Cap Domestic Value Stocks, and Emerging Market Equity. . KALSON & ASSOCIATES . . . CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 In Run 4, we implemented many of the same constraints as Run 3, however we fIxed the allocation to domestic fL'{ed income to 25% (no more, no less), and reduced our maximum allowable REIT exposure to 10%. All other constraints were the same as Run 3. The results of this run were interesting. Of the 11 portfolios generated by the allocation software, we chose to focus on portfolio #8, which provided a 7.4% expected return, and a 10.8% risk (standard deviation). Similar to Run 3, this portfolio suggests adding the four aforementioned assets classes that are currently not in the City of Clearwater allocation, and also adding a small allocation (2.4%) to emerging market debt. KALSON & ASSOCIATES . . - CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 3. SUPPORTING INFORMATION A five-year time horizon was chosen as the projection period. Because it is difficult to predict returns far into the future, managers who undertake capital markets forecasting typically limit the projection to five years. The expected returns and volatility were a combination of 1) the average of the forecasts of reputable and well-respected managers and 2) our own collective thinking. In most cases, we closely agreed with the averages. We were arguably more optimistic regarding smaller-cap and mid-cap issues. But in both cases, we believe these classes have the potential to outperform the larger-cap names in the future. Cross correlations between pairs of asset classes were based on historical data (latest 10 years) and forecasted relationships. TIlls data changes slowly over time and should not impede realistic expectations. Cross correlation statistics range between -1.0 and +1.0. A correlation of +1.0 suggests the highest degree of co-movement between two asset classes. For example, it is intuitive that intermediate-term bonds correlate highly with longer-term bonds. In fact, the historical correlation is +0.98, or almost +1.0. Correlations close to 0.0 indicate no co-movement between asset classes. Small-cap stocks vs. T-bills is such an example. A correlation of -1.0 indicates two asset classes moving in opposite return directions over time. We have forecasted that REITs and T-bills have a negative correlation (-0.06). KALSON & ASSOCIATES CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 -- 4. EXPLANATION OF OUTPUT PAGES FROM THE THREE MODEL RUNS Eleven-page outputs for each of the three model runs appear in Tabs 4-6. Each output page is explained below. The chart titled Asset Class Return and Risk Assumption and Constraints simply shows the initial weighting in each asset class (actual Clearwater allocation as of December, 2004); the constraints that were put in place (e.g. a minimum of 30% and a maximum of 45% in domestic aggregate bonds); the return and risk assumptions that were utilized; and the actual10-year historical returns of each asset class. The Pordolio Optimization Summary chart illustrates the small but important increments of each asset class as one moves more aggressively from Portfolio 1 to Portfolio 11. One way to use the chart is to contemplate the asset allocation in a portfolio one level higher (portfolio 7) or lower (portfolio 5) in risk than Portfolio 6. Sometimes, there are dramatic changes when the risk level is modified by only one or two degrees! . The Pordolio Downside Risk chart illustrates the one standard deviation return and the two standard deviation return for both five-years and one-year. For instance, in Scenario 3, there is a 50% probability of generating 7.28% over 5 years. 1bis is the expected return. However one standard deviation shows us that the return can range from 13.12% to 1.44%. The two standard deviation returns would range from 14.77% to -0.21%. The "mountain" chart is entitled Asset Weights. This chart shows the continual ebb and flow of each asset class as risk increases from Portfolio 1 to Portfolio 11. Some colored sections of the chart become steady state, reflecting a maximum constraint. Other colors start large and decay to zero; this phenomenon is depicting the decline in optimization of the low-risk asset classes as the portfolio assumes more risk. The Optimal Selection Summary page shows the optimal weights of each Portfolio (we selected Portfolio #9) asset class in pie-chart format. Expected return is also listed, together with risk. Note that five-year risk is much lower than single-year risk; with the passage of time, risk hypothetically declines by the square root of the time period. e KALSON & ASSOCIATES CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 The Optimal vs. Initial Weights page shows the optimal weights of each Portfolio . (we selected Portfolio #9) asset class in pie-chart format versus the current, actual . exposure of the plan as of December 2004. The next chart is Annual Return Distribution, 5 Years. This bar chart shows the five-year annualized expected return in each ascending risk portfolio. In addition, the 68% confidence level (dark blue) is shown. This is equivalent to a one standard deviation risk in either direction from the mean. The 95% confidence level (light blue) depicts an almost best/worst case scenario. This is a two standard deviation (rather unlikely) outcome. The minimum target return was set at 7.5% for the overall plan. This represents the actuarially-assumed assets earnings rate, net of fees. The chart labeled Return Distribution, Single Year shows the one-year expected return in each ascending risk portfolio. In addition, the 68% confidence level is shown in dark blue. This is equivalent to a one standard deviation risk in either direction from the mean. The 95% confidence level (light blue) depicts an almost best/worst case scenario. This is a two standard deviation outcome (rather unlikely). The minimum target return was set at 7.5% for the overall plan. This represents the actuarially-assumed assets earnings rate, net-of-fees. Notice that compared to the chart labeled "Annual Return Distribution, 5 Years", the expected returns vary much more in the one-year period. The next chart is Annual Return Distribution to 5 Years (Portfolio specific). This bar chart shows the five-year annualized expected return of a specific portfolio portfolio. In addition, the 68% confidence level is shown in dark blue. This is equivalent to a one standard deviation risk in either direction from the mean. The 95% confidence level (light blue) depicts an almost best/worst case scenario. This is a two standard deviation outcome (rather unlikely). The minimum target return was set at 7.5% for the overall plan. This represents the actuarially-assumed assets earnings rate, net-of-fees. . The Feasible region graph depicts return on the X axis and risk on the Y axis for 1,000 randomly generated plots. Each plot uses a slightly different set of asset allocations. Eleven of the plots, numbered 1 through 11, represent varying levels of risk. Those are the best possible positions for a portfolio, given the risk levels and input constraints. We will always refer to Portfolio 6 of a given run as the middle risk level to consider. Taking more risk would mean substituting Portfolio 7 or higher. The reverse applies to Portfolios 5 down to Portfolio 1, the most risk-averse plot. The letter i plot refers to the current portfolio allocation. You should expect an improvement in the more efficient portfolios vs. the current (i) portfolio as of December, 2004. The various F numbered plots refer to a single asset class. To illustrate, plot Fl specifies T - Bills. - KALSON & ASSOCIATES . . . CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 The chart titled Probability of Achieving Minimum Return shows the likelihood of achieving at least 6.0% per year. That likelihood naturally increases as the investment period increases. This is a confidence-building chart, as well. In every run for the overall pension plans, the performance news is expected to be better and better by year 5. On the other hand, the expected probability of achieving at least 6.0% is still well below 100% by year 2010. A similar chart using a 7.5% target return is a much tougher hurdle. Since that target return is slightly higher than any recommended scenario, it becomes less and less likely to achieve. Our response is that these are index-oriented forecasts. Confidently, we believe active managers would provide a combined 7.5% or better 5- year outcome. Charts in the attached handouts are targeted to 7.5%. We will also discuss each of these charts in more depth when we meet with the Trustees. Each Trustee may have a new perspective to bring to the table regarding the optimal allocation for the plan. KALSON & ASSOCIATES Tab 3 ,- e . CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 5. KEY FINDINGS . Increasing equity from 60%-65% (current) to 70% increases expected return at an acceptable cost of 1 % higher expected risk . Adding more and more constraints does not cause return or risk problems and offers more diversified equity style exposure . Due to the fact that all forecasted returns are in the single-digits, it is extremely difficult to generate a projected return of the actuarial assumed 7.5%. To get even close to the 7.5%, we had to increase equity exposure to approximately 70%. . Due to REITs relatively low forecasted risk (standard deviation), the model is clearly partial to this asset class and would recommend a higher allocation to the asset class if we had not constrained it to 15% in Run 3 and to 10% in Run 4. . Although Emerging Market Equities have a relatively high forecasted risk (25% standard deviation), this asset class has the highest forecasted return on the page (9.5%). Further, due to the low correlation of emerging market equities with many of the other asset classes, the model, in many portfolios, recommends an allocation to this asset class. KALSON & ASSOCIATES CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCATION STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 . 6. RECOMMENDATIONS We offer several straightforward recommendations to the City of Clearwater Trustees. In our view, there is no rush to make the investment style changes, but we urge consideration by year-end 2005. . Shift to 70% equity exposure from the current 60%-65% range, as the forecasts for fIxed income asset classes are not particularly high, and with rates expected to increase, fIxed income may not be the "safe haven" that it has previously been. . Introduce an allocation to REITs as a portfolio diversifIer. . Use a portion of the current large-cap value exposure to fund an allocation to an active small-cap growth manager . Use a portion of the current mid-cap growth exposure to fund an allocation to an active mid-cap value manager . Introduce exposure to emerging market equities. This asset class is projected to provide solid returns, with higher risk. However, the asset class also further diversifIes the City of Clearwater plan due to its relatively low correlation with other asset classes . At the end of the day, the views of the City of Clearwater Trustees are paramount. . KALSON & ASSOCIATES . . . CITY OF CLEARWATER PENSION PLAN ASSET ALLOCA nON STUDY FEBRUARY, 2005 7. INHERENT LIMITATIONS TO ASSET ALLOCATION MODELING Listed below are three limitations applicable to the Clearwater Study: · The five-year estimates of return and risk are just that, estimates. · There are inherent K&A biases in the return estimates. For example, we believe that small-cap and mid-cap equities will do better than their large-cap brethren. More importantly, we are assuming that future returns are much, much lower than the high double-digit performance earned for most of the 1990s. · This was an assets-only study, independent of all but one (earnings rate) actuarial assumption. 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