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Item #ENG 2 - Construction Cost Trends CLW 2006_0313
CONSTRUCTION COST TRENDS 1996 –2005 FLORIDA Content Analyzed Major Construction Material ? Cost Trends over 9 Years Analyzed CIP –6 Year Plan ? Analyzed Penny 2 Adjusted All Projects to PDC Established Construction Cost ? Escalation Factor for Future Projects Earthwork Average Price $7.24 $8.00 $8.00 [$/Cubic Yard] +65.3% $6.00 $6.00 $4.96 $4.00 $4.00 $4.38 $2.00 $2.00 -11.7% $0.00 $0.00 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 Earthwork Explanation Borrow Pit Availability ? Long Haul Distance ? Permits ? Asphalt Average Price $75.81 $80.00 $80.00 [$/Ton] +21.9% $53.93 $60.00 $60.00 $40.00 $40.00 $61.63 +14.3% $20.00 $20.00 $0.00 $0.00 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 Asphalt Explanation Oil / Petroleum Prices ? Plant Operation Costs ? Material and Transportation Costs ? for Aggregates Structural Concrete Average Price $749.9 $800.00 $800.00 +32.8% [$/Cubic Yard] $550.6 $600.00 $600.00 $400.00 $400.00 $564.1 +2.5% $200.00 $200.00 $0.00 $0.00 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 Structural Concrete Explanation Cement Price Increases ? –China Demand Material and Transportation Costs ? for Aggregates Plant Operation Cost ? Structural Steel $1.57 Average Price +6.1% $2.00 $1.48 $2.00 [$/Pound] +39.6% $1.50 $1.50 $1.00 $1.00 $1.06 $0.50 $0.50 $0.00 $0.00 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 Structural Steel Explanation China Demand in 2004 ? Virgin Steel Prices ? Reinforcing Steel $0.89 Average Price +18.7% $1.00 $0.75 $1.00 [$/Pound] +44.0% $0.80 $0.80 $0.60 $0.60 $0.40 $0.40 $0.52 $0.20 $0.20 $0.00 $0.00 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005 Reinforcing Steel Explanation China Demand in 2004 ? Scrap Metal Prices ? General Explanation for Increases Construction Market Saturation ? Labor Shortages ? Fuel Cost ? Supply & Demand ? –International Competition Trucking Costs ? Hurricanes ? CIP –6 Year Plan Projects Cost Analyzed Wastewater Collection -TBE ? Reclaimed Water -McKim & Creed ? Water Supply & Treatment -Parsons ? Water Pollution Ctrl. -Jones Edmunds ? Transportation -HDR ? Drainage -HDR ? Architectural -HDR ? Marine Facilities -HDR ? Cost Methodologies Used for Analysis Price Histories ? ENR Construction Cost Index ? History RS Means Construction Cost Data ? Construction Industry -Contractor ? Cost Feedback Present Day Cost Adjustment All CIP Projects in 6-Year Plan ? were Adjusted to Reflect PDC PDC was Subject to Project Scope ? and Complexity Average PDC Adjustment 25% ? CIP Projects Impacted by PDC Adjustment NE WWTP Thermal Dryers ? –FY 10/11 to FY 11/12 WWTP East Bypass & Northeast ? Pump –FY 09/10 to FY 10/11 WWTP UV Disinfection ? –FY 09/10 to FY 10/11 CIP Projects Impacted by PDC Adjustment Morningside Meadows Drainage ? Improvements –FY 05/06 to FY 09/10 Spring Branch Detention & ? Conveyance Improvements –FY 06/07 to FY 09/10 Penny for Pinellas 2 All Remaining Penny 2 ? Construction Projects were Evaluated for Project Feasibility & Funding Funding is Adequate for ? Remaining Penny 2 Projects as Envisioned and Planned Penny 2 Construction Projects Bayfront Promenade ? Morningside Recreation Center ? New Fire Stations ? Construction Cost Escalation Factor 125% 20.9 125% 20.9 17.2 17.2 120% 120% 13.5 13.5 115% 115% 9.5 9.5 110% 110% 5.0 5.0 105% 105% 100% 100% FY06/07FY07/08FY08/09FY09/10FY10/11 FY06/07FY07/08FY08/09FY09/10FY10/11 +5.0% +4.5% +4.0% +3.7% +3.7% Resources to Establish CIP Escalation Factor Global Insight’s Consumer Price ? Index 2.54% Price Index for State and Local ? Construction Spending 4.0% Price Trends for Federal-Aid Highway ? Construction 2.4% Monthly Bid Analysis 12.0% ? Average = 5.48% ? Summary Analyzed Major Construction Material ? Cost Trends over 9 Years Analyzed CIP –6 Year Plan ? Analyzed Penny 2 Adjusted All Projects to PDC Established Construction Cost ? Escalation Factor for Future Projects CONSTRUCTION COST TRENDS 1996 –2005 FLORIDA