GAS ADJUSTMENTS EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 1, 2005
RECEIVED
CLEARWA TER GAS SYSTEM
Interoffice Correspondence Sheet
~".".'.' i).rl '1005
I"i~i .... tJ {..
TO:
William B. Horne II, City Manager
Chuck Warrington, Managing Director ~
COPIES: ~od Irwin, Assistant City Manager; Cyndie Goudeau, City Clerk;
CGS & CCS Management Teams; Janet Dorrough, Sr. Accountant/CGS;
Tom Madley, Sr. Accountant/CCS; Laura Damico, Sr. Accountant/CCS
OFFICIAL RECORDS AND
LEGISLATIVE SRVCS DEPT
FROM:
SUBJECT: GAS ADJUSTMENTS EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 1, 2005
DATE: November 22, 2005
Even though the gas markets have begun to stabilize somewhat, the level has increased
since we set our October and November rates in September. Therefore, we are regrettably
recommending an increase of 70/therm in our Natural Gas Purchased Gas Adjustments
(PGA). Fortunately, the propane market has stabilized faster than we expected; therefore,
we are recommending a decrease of 40/gallon in our Propane (LP) PGA.
We are not recommending any changes to our Energy Conservation Adjustment '(ECA),
Environmental Imposition Adjustment (EIA), or our Weather Normalization Adjustment
(WNA) clauses at this time.
The net effect of these recommended changes is an increase in our typical Residential
Natural Gas customer's rate of 7(;/therm (up 3.2%), but a decrease in our typical
Residential LP customer's rate of 4(;/gallon (down 1.6%).
Therefore, we are recommending your approval of the following rates to become effective
for billings rendered on and after December 1, 2005:
Natural Gas Firm Standard Rate Schedule PGA ....... $1.540 per therm (up 7.0e/therm)
Natural Gas Interruptible and Contract
(Non-Standard) Rate Schedule PGA ............. $1.460 per therm (up 7.00/therm)
Propane (LP) Gas Rate Schedule PGA .................... $1.450 per gallon (down 4.00/gallon)
Energy Conservation Adjustment (ECA) ............... $0.120 per therm (no change)
& $0.1 20 per gallon of LP (no change)
Environmental Imposition Adjustment (EIA) ......... $0.020 per therm (no change) &
$0.020 per gallon of LP (no change)
Weather Normalization Adjustment (WNA) .......... $0.000 per therm (no change)
& $0.000 per gallon of LP (no change)
William B. Horne II, City Manager
Page 2
November 22, 2005
,
Attachment #1 shows the status of our Adjustment Recovery Clause balances with
actuals thru September and projections thru Period 13. These show that we are projecting
being about $1.56 Million behind at the end of the last fiscal year. It is important to our
overall financials for FY 05/06 that we bring this closer to balance by next Fiscal Year End,
and our recommended recovery factors are based on recovering about 50% of this.
Attachments #2 and #3 show our current annual projections for Natural Gas and LP supply
costs, respectively. Attachment #4 shows our methodology for calculating our proposed
PGA. Attachments #5 and #6 show the impact of these adjustment clause changes on
our overall Natural and LP Gas rates, respectively. Attachment #7 shows our rate history
over the past 5 years and shows our relationship to electric prices.
I should point out that the overall effect is that our typical Residential customer rates are
still 21 % lower than electric for Natural Gas and 5% lower for LP. These margins should
increase some more by January as Progress Energy Florida implements increased Fuel
Adjustment charges that were recently approved by the Florida Public Service Commission
(FPSC) .
It is our plan to use the above-proposed adjustments for billings through September 30,
2006, unless there is a significant change in our forecasts or we project a significant
over/under recovery of our adjustment clauses. We will continue to track these balances
monthly, make monthly projections of these factors based on market conditions, and let
you know if any of these get significantly out of balance.
Bill, I would appreciate your approval of these revised adjustment rates so we canget this
information to CCS in order to make the appropriate adjustments in the billing formulas in
time for the December 1 st billings. If you have any questions on this, please call me.
CSW /csw
Attachments
Approved: ~6. ~']["
II ham B. Horne II, CIty Manager
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Sep-05
Oet-05
Nov-05
Dee-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Se -06
NYMEX
Propane FY 2006
Projections
CGS Cost Gal Delivered Inventory Cost
48,762 $ 48,177.71
58,657 $ 75,226.59
27,000 $ 33,210.00
60,000 $ 65,400.00
60,000 $ 65,700.00
54,000 $ 58,860.00
54,000 $ 58,050.00
50,000 $ 53,000.00
36,000 $ 38,160.00
36,000 $ 38,160.00
27,000 $ 28,620.00
27,000 $ 28,620.00
27,000 $ 28,620.00
0.9800
0.9850
0.9800
0.9650
0.9600
0.9600
0.9600
0.9600
0.9600
0.9600
1.2300
1.0900
1.0950
1.0900
1.0750
1.0600
1.0600
1.0600
1.0600
1.0600
1.0600
/trrAcJ.!meAJr U
-
-
Projected
WACOG
0.988
1.149
1.165
1.142
1.131
1.124
1.116
1.110
1.106
1.102
1.100
1.098
1.096
CSW:11122105
ATTACHMENT #4
Page 1 of 2
PURCHASED GAS ADJUSTMENT (PGA) CALCULATIONS
FOR THE BILLING PERIOD OF 10/01/05.09/30/06
I. Differential between the Natural Gas Firm Standard Rate Schedule PGA and the Natural Gas Interruptible &
Contract (Non-Standard) Rate Schedule PGA (See attached Page 2)
II. Calculation of the Required Natural Gas PGA WACOG for FY 05106
A. Therm Sales Projection for 10/1/05 - 9/30/06 =
B. Projected NG Reservation Cost 10/1/05 - 9/30106 = $
Projected NG Commodity Cost 1011/05 - 9/30/06 = $
Budgeted Other Supply Related Expenses = $
Total Recovery Needed for FY 05/06 only = $
50% of Under Recovery of FYTD PGA thru 9/05 = $
Total Annualized Recovery Needed for FY 05106 = $
C. Required Weighted Average Recovery CostlTherm =$
Currently overall PGA Recovery is:
Therefore, Contract PGA needs to bE $
Which makes Standard PGA: $
=
$0.080
23,390,000
1,400.000
24,700,000
2,300,000
28.400,000
800,000
29,200,000
1.248
89% of Contract Rate
1.40
1.48
D. Projected NG PGA Annual Revenue =
III. Proposed Natural Gas PGA Billing Factors for 10/01/05 - 09/30/0€
A. Proposed Standard Rate PGA Billing Factor
B. Less Non-Standard Differential for Reservation Cost $
C. Proposed Non-Standard PGA Billing Factor
IV. Proposed LP Gas Billing Factors for 10/01/05 - 09/30/06 $
(Assumes current LP market conditions persist)
Note: Includes 3 cents/gallon catch-up to recoup
$19,500 under-recovery from 595,000 gallons over the
year & 19 cents/gallon to recoup the $110,000 of Admin
& CCS projected charges. Base est. was $1.17/gallon.
U:\My DocumentslEXCELIGASRATESIFY 05-06\[PGA for FY 05-06 - Update for 12-1.05.x1s)PGACALC
Pinellas NG PGA =
Pasco NG PGA =
Total NG PGA =
$ 25,222,474
$ 3,977,526
$ 29,200,000
PGA Only
ECA in PGA
Total PGA
$
1.48 $
0.06 $
1.54
$
(0.08) $
1.40 $
1.46
$
(0.08)
0.06 $
PGA Only. ECA in PGA
Total PGA
1.39 $
0.06 $
1.45
0
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CSW:11/22/05 I I I I I I I I I I I Attachment #7
I I I I I I I I I I I
. Residential Rate History By Components
Clearwater Gas System
I I I I I
Total Rate I ComDonll!!ntlllThem Contract LP
Month NG/therm LP/aallon * ~A EIA WNA PGA ~GA PGAlaallon
Oct-04$ 1.710 $ 2.030 $ 0.100 $ - $ - $ 1.030 $ 0.960 $ 1.130
Nov-04 $ 1.710 $ 2.030 $ 0.100 $ - $ - $1.030 $ 0.960 $ 1.130
Dee-04 $ 1.750 $ 2.090 $ 0.100 $ - $ - $ 1.070 $ 1.000 $ 1.190
Jan-05 $ 1.750 $ 2.090 $ 0.100 $ - $ - $1.070 $ 1.000 $ 1.190
Feb-05 $ 1.830 $ 2.150 $ 0.130 $ - $ 0.010 $1.110 $ 1.040 $ 1.210
Mar-05 $ 1.860 $ 2.180 $ 0.130 $ 0.020 $ 0.020 $1.110 $ 1.040 $ 1.210
Apr-05 $ 1.860 $ 2.280 $ 0.130 $ 0.020 $ 0.020 $1.110 $ 1.040 $ 1.210
May-05 $ 1.790 $ 2.190 $ 0.130 $ 0.020 $ - $1.060 $ 0.990 $ 1.140
Jun-05 $ 1.790 $ 2.190 $ 0.130 $0.020 $ - $1.060 $ 0.990 $ 1.140
Jut-05 $ 1.790 $ 2.190 $ 0.130 $0.020 $ - $1.060 $ 0.990 $ 1.140
Aug-05 $ 1.820 $ 2.220 $ 0.140 $ 0.020 $ - $1.080 $ 1.010 $ 1.160
Sep-05 $ 1.970 $ 2.300 $ 0.140 $ 0.020 $ - $ 1.230 $ 1.160 $ 1.240
FY 04/05 Avg. $ 1.803 1$ 2.162 $ 0.122 $ 0.012 S 0.004 S 1.085 $ 1.015 $ 1.174
2004 Avg. $ 1.652 $ 1.968 $ 0.123 $ - S - S 0.949 $ 0.879 $ 1.046
Oct-05 $ 2.190 $ 2.530 $ 0.120 $ 0.020 $ - $1.470 $ 1.390 $ 1.490
Nov-05 $ 2.190 $ 2.530 $ 0.120 $0.020 $ - $ 1.470 $ 1.390 $ 1.490
Dee-05 $ 2.260 $ 2.490 $ 0.120 $ 0.020 $ - $1.540 $ 1.460 $ 1.450
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug.06
Sep-06
FY 05/06 Avg. $ 2.213 $ 2.517 $ 0.120 $ 0.020 $ - $ 1.493 $ 1.413 $ 1.477
2005 Avg. $ 1.925 $ 2.278 $ 0.127 $ 0.017 $ 0.004 $1.198 $ 1.125 $ 1.256
Incr. Above $ 0.510 $ 0.400 S 0.020 $ 0.020 $ - $ 0.470 $ 0.460 $ 0.260
Last Year
Same Month 29% 19% 20% NA NA 44% 46% 22%
Incr. Based $ 16.30 $ 14.11
on 30 Therms 27% 19%
Equivalent
Cents/KWH 7.7 9.3
for Gas
vs. FPC Rate 9.7 9.7
Re$identlal}
Gas Cheaper
by -21% -5%
.
Notes:
* Based on Bulk LP lBRLP3 which is applicable for customers using 120.1 - 300 gallons/vear & eQual to Residential LP Will Call lBRWCLP).