GAS ADJUSTMENTS EFFECTIVE JANUARY 2011Apf
AM,
CLEARWATER GAS SYSTEM?^ D
Interoffice Correspondence Sheet CEI
2 2010
TO. William B. Horne 11, City Manager AND
1, IAt k C, ;;; DS AND
LEf36SlAV1_' SkVCS DEPT
FROM: Chuck Warrington, Managing Director
COPIES: Rod Irwin, Assistant City Manager; Rosemarie Call, City Clerk;
CGS & CCS Management Teams; Janet Dorrough, Sr. Accountant/CGS;
Tom. Madley, Sr. Accountant/CCS; Laura Damico, Sr. Accountant/CCS
SUBJECT: GAS ADJUSTMENTS EFFECTIVE JANUARY 2011
DATE: December 20, 2010
World Natural Gas supply markets have stabilized; however, we are seeing a slight winter increase
in cost. Therefore, we are recommending an increase of 50/therm in our Natural Gas Purchased Gas
Adjustment (PGA). The Propane (LP) Gas supply market has been increasing substantially.
Therefore, we are recommending that we increase our LP PGA by 290/gallon in January.
We are not recommending any change in our Energy Conservation Adjustment (ECA) nor our
Regulatory Imposition Adjustment (RIA) for January. But, we are recommending that we
implement our Usage & Inflation Adjustment (UTA) at this time at 20/therm or gallon for
Residential rates and at 30/therm or gallon for Commercial Standard (Non-Contract) rates.
The net effect of these recommended changes is an increase in our typical Residential Natural
Gas customer's rate of 70/therm. (+4.8%) and an increase in our typical Residential LP
customer's rate of 31¢/gallon (+10.3%).
'T'herefore, we are recommending your approval of the following rates to become effective for
billings rendered on and after January 1, 2011:
Natural Gas Firm Standard Rate Schedule PGA .......
Natural Gas Interruptible and Contract
(Non-Standard) Rate Schedule PGA .......
$0.92 per therm (up 50/therm)
$0.84 per therm. (up 50/therm)
Propane (LP) Gas Rate Schedule PGA .................
Energy Conservation Adjustment (ECA)
$2.19 per gallon (up 290)
$0.10 per therm or gallon (no change)
Regulatory Imposition Adjustment (ETA) ....................... $0.02 per therm or gallon (no change)
Usage & Inflation Adjustment (WNA) - Residential ............ $0.02 per therm or gallon (up 20)
Commercial ......... $0.0 3 per therm or gallon (up 3 0)
William B. Horne 1.1., City Manager December 20, 2010
Page 2
Attachment #1 shows the status of our Adjustment Recovery Clause balances with actuals thru
November. Our objective is to be close to at balance by FY ending.
Attachments #2 and 43 show our annual projections for Natural Gas and LP supply costs,
respectively. Attachment #4 shows our updated projections for PGA for FY 2010/2011.
Attachment 95 shows our calculation of our new iJsage & Inflation Adjustment (UTA). which
addresses the impact of Usage reductions (due to the poor economy) and general CPI-....U inflation.
Attachments #6 and #7 show the impact of these adjustment clause changes on our overall Natural
and LP Gas rates, respectively. Attachment #8 shows our rate history over the past 6+ years and
shows our relationship to current electric prices. Please note that page 42 of this analysis shows
that over the past 9 ears our residential natural as rates have risen lust 3.7% as compared
to a 62% increase for Progress Energy Florida residential rates. That's an average annual
increase of 0.4%/ ear for natural as vs. 6.9%/ ear for electric --- a remarkable difference!
I should point out that the overall effect is that our typical Residential customer rates are still
approximately 61% lower than electric for Natural Gas and LP is now about 9% lower than
electric. This follows Progress Energy Florida obtaining FPSC approval for a substantial increase
in their rates in the past year. These competitive positions vs. electric are a result of their increases,
while we have been steadily decreasing rates due to falling NG supply prices. Additionally, TECO
Peoples Gas received approval to increase their natural gas rates, so we are now below their pricing
for a typical residential customer.
We will continue to track these balances monthly, make monthly projections of these factors based
on market conditions, and let you know if any of these get significantly out of balance.
Bill, I would appreciate your approval of these revised adjustment rates so we can get this
information to CCS in order to make the appropriate adjustments in the billing formulas in time for
the January I st billings. If you have any questions on this, please call me.
CSW/csw
Attachments
Approved: ' _ .
iam B. Horne II, City Manager
U:WIy DocumentsWSOFFICE\WINWORD\GASRATES\Gas Adjustments for January 2011.doc
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CSW 12120120;01
PURCHASED GAS ADJUSTMENT (PGA) CALCULATIONS
FOR THE BILLING PERIOD OF 0/112010-09/30, /2011 - U dated for 1/1/2011
1. Differential between the Natural Gas Firm Standard Rate Schedule PGA and the Natural Gas Interruptible &
Contract (Non-Standard) Rate Schedule PGA (See attached Page 2)
- $0.080
II. Calculation of the Required Natural Gas PGA WACOG for FY 10/11
A. Therm Sales Projection for 10/1/10 - 9/30/11 = 20,800,000
ATTACHMENT #4
B. Projected NG Reservation Cost 10/1/10 - 9/30/11 =
Projected NG Commodity Cost 10/1/10 - 9/30/11 =
Budgeted Other Supply Related Expenses =
Total Recovery Needed for FY 10/11 only =
Less Over Recovery of FYTD PGA thru 9/10 =
Total Annualized Recovery Needed for FY 10/11 = $ 1,700,000
$ 12,400,000
S 3,500,000
$ 17,600,000
$ (100,000)
$ 17,500,000
C. Required Weighted Average Recovery Cost/Therm = $ 0.841
Currently overall PGA Recovery is: 96.7%
Therefore, Firm PGA needs to be: $ 0.87
Which makes Contract PGA: $ 0.79 of Firm Rate
D. Projected NG PGA Annual Revenue = Pinellas NG PGA =
Pasco NG PGA = $ 14,515,779
$ 2,984,221
Total NG PGA = $ 17,500,000
III. Proposed Natural Gas PGA Billing Factors for 10/1/10 - 9/30/11 PGA OnI ECA in PGA Total PGA
A. Proposed Standard Rate PGA Billing Factor $ 0.87 $ 0.05 $ 0.92
B. Less Non-Standard Differential for Reservation Cost $ 0.08 1-- §_____T_.08)
C. Proposed Non-Standard PGA Billing Factor $ 0.79 $ 0.05 $ 0.84
IV. Proposed LP Gas Billing Factors for 10/1/10 - 9/30/11 $
(Assumes current LP market conditions persist)
Note: Includes 0 cents/gallon catch-up to recoup
$0 projected under-recovery from 400,000 gallons over
the year & 47 cents/gallon to recoup the $190,000 of Admin
& CCS projected charges. Base est. was $1.67/gallon.
PGA Only- ECA in PGA Total PGA
2.14 $ 0.05 $ 2.19
U:\My documents\EXCEI %GASRATES\FY 10-11gPGA for FY 10-11 - Jan 2011 UPdateASIPGACALC
Csw:12/20/2010
ATTACHMENT #5
CALCULATION OF USAGE & INFLATION ADJUSTMENT (UTA) FOR FY 2009/2010
For Billings
Be innin Januar 1 2011
Usage Adjustment Calculations:
1. Residential Sin le-Famit Natural Gas Use Customer:
Average Number of Total FY 09/10 Therms Used
FY 09110 Customers Therm Usage Per Customer
15,334 3,435,101 224.0
Threshhold for application of UTA per Rate Ordinance = Less Than 204
Therefore, no Residential Single Family Usage Adjustment is recommended
Applicable FY 09/10 Non-Fuel Revenues = $ 4,251,910.88
2. Commercial Non-Interruptible) Natural Gas Use Customer:
Average Number of Total FY 09/10 Therms Used
FY 09/10 Customers Therm Usage Per Customer
2,089 12,661,277 6060.9
Threshhold for application of UTA per Rate Ordinance = Less Than 6,307
Shortfall as % of Applicable FY 09/10 Non-Fuel Revenues = -3.90%
Applicable FY 09/10 Non-Fuel Revenues = $ 6,900,723.31
Authorized Commercial Usage Recovery for FY 09/10 = $ 269,237.36
Inflation Adjustment Calculations:
U. S. Dept. of Labor CPI-U for September 2009 = 215.969
U. S. Dept. of Labor CPI-U for September 2010 = 218.439
CPI-U Inflatoion Increase Applicable to FY 09/10 Revenues = 1.144%
Authorized UTA Recove for FY 2009 2010:
1. Residential Single-Family Recovery for FY 2009/2010
Usage Portion = $ -
Inflation Portion = $ 48,628.37
Total = $ 48,628.37
Projected Therms & Gallons to Recover on for 1/1/2011- 9/30/2011 = 2,900,000
Projected Residential UTA Recovery Required = $ 0.02
2. Commercial (Non-Interruptible) Recovery for FY 2009/2010
Usage Portion = $ 269,237.36
Inflation Portion = $ 78,922.38
Total = $ 348,159.74
Projected Therms & Gallons to Recover on for 1/1/2011- 9/30/2011 = 12,500,000
Projected Residential UTA Recovery Required = $ 0.03
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CSW 12120120'C
Attachment #8
Page 1 of 3
Residential Rate History By Comp onents
Clearwater Gas System
Month 1 N
N Total Rate
G
G/therm LP/ n? Ad'ustments/Therm Contract LP
1 ECA EIA/RIA# ANA/UTA-Resl# UTA-Comll-- PGA ! PGA PGA/ allon
ov S
-08
S 1.990
$
1
990 3.300
3 300
5 0.140 $
S
g
1.270 $
.
.190 S
.260
Dec-08 .
- 70.1 $ 0,146 $ 5
$ 0.140 $ S
g
5 70 : $
S 1,2
$ 1
220
S 1.190 S
1
1
40 2.260
Jan 09 $
1.750 $
:
2.2 90
#
,090
' S $
S .
.180 9
$ 1 .1
S S
1
00 11.730
200
Feb-09 1.750 S 90
.2
2 0
$ S
$ 1.18D
5
I .
1
100 $ ......
200
Apr-091 $
r 1.4580 1 $
410 2270 $ 0.070
$ $ $ $ 1.030 .
S .
1.
00
Ma
-091 $
May
1
410 ,
$
2200 $ 0.040 !
L $ 0
040
$
S
I
$ 0.890
0.810
5
60
1
Jun-09' S „
.
1.410
1 2266 .
$
004
$ $ - $ 0.890 S 0.810
S 1.160
.
ul-09 $
?
1.350
$
2.330
1
$ - 0
040
5
$ $
S _ $ 0.890
$
0.810
...
0
Au -D9'
$
9
$
1.350
- -
2.490
.
.
?
$ 0 040 5
S
S
$ 0.830
$ 0
830
0750 S
19
.2 0
.
Sep-09, $
1.39D $ I
2.650
`-
$ 0.070 ' g 0.010 $ ...
$ .
$
$ 0.830 5
.
0750
S
0
750
5 1.450
1
570
FY 08109 Avg. $ 1.610 ! $ 2.524 1 $ 0.078 $ 0.001 S $ $ 1.026 $ ,
.
0.946 $ .
1
470
2008 Avg. 1 $ 1.965 $ 3.186 1
I i $ 0.136 1 $ - $ 0.013 $ $ 1.237 $ 1.157 1 $ .
2.138
Oct-09
_._.-.....
ov-091 S _ S
1
390
$ 2.670 __.
...
2
670 .... , $
0.830 S
?... 0750
S
II
1.590
Dec-09 $
J .
_
1
390 $
.
2750 $
0,070 $ 0.01o
..$ $ $ 0,830
.
I
S
... 0.750 1
.590
an-101 $ .
_.-...
1
380 5
L
2
750 0
.070 $ 0.010
$
06-1,
r
$ _ ...
-
-..
I
eb
-1 .
_.-._.
...
1
480 $ .
__..
2
810
0.010 $
0
S
0.830
S
.750
$
1.
fi70
101 $
Mar
-
.
....
.....
1.520
.
_..
........... . $
_ .110
. ..
$ D.010 $
g 0
110
?i 6010 $
$ $ 0.8 80 ...3.
...
-
-
1
_ $
0.800 1.690
Apr-101 --.._...', ...
$ .
I
...1_
-
...
880
- .
;.....
$
D.11
0
0 $
$
1
00
.
6
0.92
.... i
' $ 0
920 5
S
0.840 5
0
840
1.760
May-10 $ .490 $
1
.. --
..?.. 2.850
,850 -
$
0
.090
$
0
030 $ .
$
S
.
0
810 1
$
1.760
1
730
Jun
-101 $
'..
1.
460 $
-- 2.950
.
.... .- $ 0.090 1 $ 0.030 5 - $ 1
D.860
$
$
0
.
1
0
780 S
.
30
1
Jul-10
$.
.
Au
10 $ 1
.430
1
$
1
390 $ 2
2.990 +
3
0 $ 0.090 $ 0.030 g .
1
0830
$....
.... .
0
I .:8
g
.......
Se
$
.
1.390
$
.
90
3
090 $ 0.090 $ 0.030 S
-----..
.$...
- _
S 0.790 $ ._ .
0.790 . S ..
1.970
1
FY 09/10 Avg.
1.437 1 $ .
2.865
$ 0 .088 I $ 0
! $
018
$ S
1 1.970
2009 Avg. 1 $
1.464 1 $
2.418 1 .
$ 0.061 1 $ 0.003 $
$ $0.850 $
!
- ! $ 0.920 1 $ 0
0.7 $
0.840 1 S 1.758
1.353
Oct 10 $
N
10 ._ .
1,47 $
1
47 $ ......... I
3.02-
-0.10 O-V
,...-. _._ $ .._ ....
....
$ ..._....
0.79 15 .
1.90
ov -
Dec-10 $ .
1.47 $ 3.02
3.021 $ 0.10 $ 0.02 $
L
0
$ 6.10 $
02 '
l
S $ __
$ ..0.87
$
0
87 0.79 90
$
n-11
.54 $
.33 .
.
l
.
.
..
{
0 10 .- ... .
-..
- - 0
_ $
90
_
1-
-
Feb-11
$
$ 0_0
2 $
1 0.02 $ 0.03 5 0.92$ T
084S 2.1
11
Mar-1 1 =
May-11 1 f -
.....-_.._
Jun_-11
Jul-11 i _--
--
9 ,
--
...
-
FY 10111 Avg. 1 $ 1.488 ' $ 3.098 $ 0.100 $ 0.020 $ 0.00$ $ 0.008 $0.8 3 $ 0.803 $ 1
973
2D10 Avg. $ 1.457 $ 2.946 1 1 1 $ 0.096 1 $ 0.021 $ - $ - $ 0.86D $ 0.780 1 5 .
1
829
ncr. Above
$
...............
.15 $
.58 ......._.
.03
..-.._...
_.......
_
$
.02 1
$
-._L... ----
. $ $
0 03 0
09
.. .
..
_09. _; $
0 .
0
52
Last
ear a
II
r- .
... . - .
Same
onth 1 °
....
1r ° `...
21 k
-._....
- -
10D k
?
A
N
.....
..........
NA . ... 1...1%
!..-..
--...
...
12%'
°1°
-... ?,
.
Incr. Based $
.._..... .... -. _
6.75 ...._-?
52 i
...... ' -
....- ..
. ..
. ...-
on 4
- Therms. ---- ....
21%1 ......
'valent
Cents/KWH 5.3; 12.41
for Gas ---- 1 i
1
vs. FPC Rate 13.6
; 13.61 Note: This is Progress Energy's residential rate
? for usag
1
a X1
000 KWH
(Residential)
I
? ,
.
1
I
Gas Cheaper
-61/ 9/°I
1 /
Base
LP
( BRL
customers using
/20.1 - 300 gallons/year & equal to Residential LP Will Call (BRWCLP
1
1
pli
ted
/1 2l)09,
# Newaate
plem
with
owing changes:
RS NG Customer Charge increased $2 from $8 to $10/month & NFE rate droped 10 cents to 48 cents/therm
(CC +$1/Mo
in 4/1/2005)
BRL P3 LP Customer Charge increased $18 from
$72 to S90/year
and NFE rate rais
d 10
t t
$1
0
/
l .
.
-
changed to RIA & WNA ,
e
cen
o
changed to UTA
but no additions to new com
onents of the
t
ll .
0
ga
lon (CC +12/Yr. In 4/1/2005)
._
UTA implemented-
m lemented 1/1/2011
,
p
se ini
y.
ia
1
CSW-9/29/2009 Attachment #8
Page 2 of 3
Competitive History of NG vs. Electric Rates
Month-Year NG Therm Cost
September 2001 $ 1.34 $
September 2002 $ 1.36 $
September 2003 $ 1.56 $
September 2004 $ 1.69 $
September 2005 $ 1.97 $
September 2006 $ 1.89 $
September 2007 $ 1.86 $
September 2008 $ 2.12 $
September 2009 $ 1.39 $
September 2010 $ 1.39 $
$ Increase over
Last 9 Years $
0.05 $
% Increase over
Last 9 Years
3.7%
NG Equivalent
KWH Cost
0.046 $
0.046 $
0.053 $
0.058 $
0.067 $
0.065 $
0.063 $
0.072 $
0.047 $
0.047 $
0.00 $
3.7%
Avg. Annual Inc.
Over Last 9 Yrs_ 0.4% 0.4%
Progress Energy
KWH Cost
0.084
0.074
0.084
0.089
0.097
0.119
0.120
0.120
0.132
0.136
0.05
62%
6.9%
NG vs.
Electric
-46%
-37%
-37%
-35%
-31%
-46%
-47%
-40%
-64%
-65%
CsW:12/20/2010
Attachment #8
Page 3 of 3
Annual Average CGS Residential Rates
Calender Year Fiscal Year
Year GlThenm LP/Gallon lYear
*
0880 LP/Gallon! l 199
NA FY 95/96 _ $ NIG/Therm
1995 NA
1996 $ 0.915 $ 1.239 * FY 96/97 $ 1.019 $ 1.370
1997 $ 1.049 $ 1.3$0 FY 97/98 $ 1.054 $ 1.318
1998 $ 1.032 I $ 1.288 FY 98/99 $ 1.052 $ 1.269
1999 $ 1.073 $ 1.311 j FY 99/00 $ 1.152 $ 1.504
2000 $ 1.222 $ 1.584 FY 00/01 $ 1-551 $ 1.649
2001 $ 1.549 ? $ 1.586 ' IFY 01 /02 $
: 1.352 $ 1.488
2002
1.342 $
1.553 _...
FY 02/03 .
1-477 $
1,817
2003 _
$
' 1.534 $ 1.864
FY 03/04
.._$._-...
i
......1.603 $
1.913: .
2004
-
$
1.652 $
1.968
-----...
FY 04/05
$
1.803 $
2.162
2005 $ 1.925 I 1
FY 05/0 80 2.480
_.._.
2006
$ ?..
-
2.012 f $ _
2.501 i .
...... - -...._
; F
Y 06/07
?
.._1........
$
I
1.9
$
_... ,_...
2.742
2007
$
1.8-6-3 1
8
I -
.
2008 ..._.. . 1.965
$ 3.
86 j FY 08/09
I $ 1.610
I, $ 2
524
200
9
$ .
_...... _....... ?
1.464 i $
2.418
FY 09/10
$
1.437 $
2.865
201
-- 0
$ I
1.457 $
2.946
FY 10/11
. ....... f .
Average : $ 1.472 $ 1.998 $ 1.461 $ 1.966
i
Notes: i
Based on the Residential Metered Propane schedule which was closed for
new custome _-........... --- - --- ..............
rs effective March 8, 1999. For 1999 & FY 99/00 and beyond
based on Bulk LP (BRLP3 which is applicable for customers using
120.1 - 300 gallons/year & is equal to Residential LP Will Call