02/21/1992
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LIBRARY BOARD
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MINUTES
DATE ra~"Il4t ~11'"
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CLEARWATER PUBLIC LIBRARY BOARD
Minutes of the Meeting February 21, 1992
Clearwater Public Library
9:30 a.m. - 10:15 a.m.
Present:
William Donovan, Chair
Wilbert Bacon
Frederick Dunn
C. Pate Hutchens
Thalia Kelsey
Joanne Laurenti
Katherine Merriam
Cnrol Nielsen
Virginia Watson
Jack Wilson
Althea Andersen, ex-officio
Marsha McGrath, ex-officio
Carolyn Moore, ex-officio
Absent:
Dr. David C. Berry, excused
Guests:
Jon Bradley, CPLS Staff
Gretchen Bush, II
Jana Fine, "
Larry Hamrell, "
Ann Scheffer, II
Ann Wickersham, II
Shirley Hunt, GCPL Foundation
Chairman William Donovan called tho meeting to order at 9:30 a.m. The
minutes of the January Board meeting were accepted as submitted.
Marsha McGrath, Youth Services Division Manager, introduced staff in
the Youth Services Division which includes staff working on the Family
Resource & Opportunity Guide (FROG) service. Mrs. McGrath discussed the
many services provided by these stnff members and noted those areas of service
that were discontinued due to the loss of a Librarian I position in that
division: no outreach service is provided; no reader's advisory service
is available on the first floor.
Ann Wickersham discussed second year plans to get the FROG database
accessible to the public. Mrs. Wickersham is exploring possibilities for
a third year grant. The future of the FROG service is secure even though
Mrs. Wickersham's part-time position is funded by the grant, since another
part-time position held by t>1rs. Ann Scheffer is City funded.
Jan Bradley discus~ed upcoming events during the Library's 75th year
and distributed brochures.
Ms. Bradley noted the search for a Carnegie plaque on the Clearwater
Public Library building has led to a dead end. If the Library wishes to have
a plaque, one will have to be designed and purchased. Donations would be
accepted.
The Board discussed the Long Range Plan~ing Committee's note to the
Board commenting on the issues raised by Mr. Dunn of the Library Board.
The Library Board agreed that ~lr. Dunn's report will be attached to the
Library Board minutes this ruOl1th which will be sent with the Long Range
Plan to the City Commission. The Long Range Plan will be presented by Library
stnff to the City Commission at a work session attended by the Library Board.
The Long Range Plan was approved by the Library Board through a motion at the
December 13, 1991, Board meeting ~ith two dissenting votes.
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Clearwater Public Library Board
Minutes-of the Meeting February 21, 1992
Page 2
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Mr. Hunt reported on the last Foundation meeting. Receptions will be
hosted in the home of Foundation Board member, Mollie Lea, for guest author
Je~ry Spinelli, and in the hODe of Marsha McGrath, Library Division Manager,
for guest author Richard Peck.
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~trs. Nielsen asked if any information has been received regarding the
search for Library Director. Neither Mr. Donovan nor Library staff has any
new information. The Board strongly urges the City Manager to pursue the
search for Library Director. As the Board previously stated, they expect
the position to be filled by the start of the FY 92/93.
Mr. Hutchens, in Dr. Berry's absencet reported that Jen Regulski has
been nominated for the new President of the Friends of the Clearwater Library.
Mr. Hunt reported that tickets are on sale for Barbara Taylor Bradford's program
in April sponsored by the Friends.
Mrs. Moore reported that the new telephone system will be installed
'within th~ next week at Main Library.
Mrs. Moore noted that the City Manager reported a $1.1 million additional
deficit for 1992/93 fiscal year. At this time the Library Department has not
been specified as an area to be cut.
Mrs. Nerriam moved that the meeting be adjourned at 10:15 a.m. The motion
was seconded and approved~
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From:Frederick Dunn. Advisory Board Member. Clearwater Library
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To:Library Advisory Board
Date: January 7. 1992
Subject:Minority Report To The Long Range Planning Report
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
The long range planning document to which this minority report is
attached represents;
An excellent example of looking at what a community wants
from a library system by the committee and a oonsultant.
Evaluating both the present services and possible future
services
Developing a sequence and schedule of implementation of the
proposed service additions and enhancements
Writins a report that is readable.
In the opinion of this writer. a member of the Library Advisory
Board. not enough attention was paid to the future growth of the
city of Clearwater. circulation. library space and future changes
in the county area served by the library.
The conclusions reached by the writer in respect to the above are
summarized below and expanded in the balance of this report;
The City of Clearwater will each its maximum practical
popUlation by the year 2000 or shortly thereafter.
The figures shown on the committee report on cardholders
and circulation are grossly exa.ggerated by the current
policy of not having cardholders renew their membership
on a regular basis.
No reasonable evaluation 'of the amount and quality of
library space ",as made to support the added and enbanced
library activities.
No attempt was made to evaluate, in general terms, the
impact of adding the parts of the county now fully enclosed
by the oity of Clearwater or the folding of the Clearwater
Library System into the county library system.
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MINORITY REPORT TO THE LONG RANGE PLANNING REPORT
CLEARWATER POPULATION TRENDS
The City of Clearw8'ter is a city near its limits of growth;
Most of the land in the city has been developed.
The major spaces that could be developed for housing are
now zoned business and are adjacent to the downtown.
The chance of extending the city limits are not too great
since most of the oity is surrounded by other towns.
Largo
Belleir
Safety Harbor
'Dunedin
Though there is a theoretical total population limit of
170,000 people, this figure is not a reasonable one since
it would involve substantial destruction of single family
and replacement with multi-family dwellings Creference 1),
The state of Florida is looking at a slowing of population
growth and a possible negative growth in Pinellas, Pasco
and Hillboro counties Creference 2),
The 1990/1991 census has been completed and the first release of
data indicates a pOPUlation of 137JOOO people. This figure will
have to be adjusted since the Census tracts that cover Clearwater
include parts of the surrounding towns.
There is a forecast of 1990 population and a projection based
upon that data to the year 2000 (references 3 and 4). These
show;
The estimated 1991 pOPUlation will be;
105,940 people as regular presidents
20,481 people will be added as seasonal residents
For a total estimated population of 126,421
The estimated year 2000 population will be;
119,111 people on a regular basis
21,506 people will be added as seasonal residents
For a total estimated pOPUlation of 140,617
The gain in population will be 14J196 residents.
This translates into some 7,300 additional dwellins
units in the city using 1.94 persons per unit, or 5,638
units at the peak season average of 2.5.
'rhere is not enough room in the city to add this many un its of
any typet single family of multiple familY. The only conolusion
that can be drawn from the above is;
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MINORITY REPORT TO THE LONG RANGE PLANNING REPORT
Unless there is a change in the oity limits~ Clearwater is
very closo to being full.
Though the long range planning committee report talks about
"a growing number of children" as well as an agin~ popula-
tion~ the St. Pete Times article attached is probably more
accurate when it says "Don't hold your breath waiting for
Tampa to grow again, because you have already seen it.
This puts a real cap on the future growth of circulation in
the library and a cap on the usase of the added and enhanced
services.
LIBRARY USERS AND CIRCULATION
There are two charts ,in the report entitled "Circulation 1979-
1991" and another that follows "TRENDLINE Circulation 1979-1991"
(reference 4) that are very deceptive because;
The straight line seems to point upwardS at a sharp angle.
But if you were to draw a line connection the dots, YOU
would get a classic example of a normal growth Qurve-
Rapid growth at the start -1979
And a slowing rate of growth at the end.
Which matches the current city growth trend.
Couple this with another chart, "New Library Cards Issued"
(reference 5), which indicates;
Though new cards grew on 8n upward trend from 1979 to 1985,
they are now on a downward trend through 1990.
The peak number of cards issued in 1985 were about 32,000
and now are about 9,000 in 1990 and probably will be less in
1991.
The cards issued chart seems to indicate that a large number of
persons in Clearwater hold library cards;
,As of Fall. 1991 there were 102,000 cards issued.
This works out to a 82.2 percent of the population having
library cards.
As t.he resul-t of a purging of the 102,000 of cardholders who
have not withdrawn a book for five years, the 'number of
cardholders has dropped to about 82,900.
If the 62.83 percent figure is still correct for 1991, then
the number of legitimate cardholders based upon a population
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MlNORITY REPORT TO THE LONG RANGE PLANNING REPORT
of 126,421 would be 79,430.
The difference between the 82,900 cards after the purge and
the estimate based upon the libraries peroentage would be
82,900 minus 79,430 or about 3,500 illeSal oardholders.
The writer did some research with the help of the Clearwa.ter
Utilities Department. They serve the northern part of Pinellas
County, from fJlmerton to the Pasco line. The information was in
regard to the turnover of people using gas; ,
They serve about 41,700 business and residencial customers
in the service area.
The monthly ohange of billing addresses of gas users is 1.9
percent or an annual rate of 22.8 percent.
If we were to applY this to Clearwater residents, it would
indicate that there is nearly a one hundred percent turnover
of residents every five years, which is clearly too high.
National figures show that the average family remains in at
one address for less that five years.
Another comparison that illustrates the possible turnover of
Clearwaters population is to compare the number of new cards
issued with the increase in population;
YEAR POP. CHANGE HEN CARDS CARDS/POPULATION
1986 2,780 12,000 430%
1987 1,523 10,000 657%
1988 1,8Bl 11. 000 565%
1989 1, 857 9,000 485%
1990 1,815 9)000 496%
It is not difficult to see that with the present policy of not
requiring cardholders to verify their residence on an regUlar
cyole, perhaps every five years, and the statistics on how often
families move could result in;
An unknown number of Clearwater residents moving out of
Clearwater and retaining and using their library cards.
The real number of taxpaying cardholders in the Clearwater
Library System being between the 62.83% for the Clearwater
Library and an average of the circulation percents of West
Palm, Alachua County and St. Petersburs of 33.85%,
If we were to use the three library average percent applied
to the 1991 population, the legitimate number of cardholders
would be 42, 100.
Somewhere between the 62,902 cards and the 42,100 possible
cards is the real number of Clearwater residents using the
1 ibrary.
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MINORITY REPORT TO THE LONG RANGE PLANNING REPORT
What would happen' if the Commission were to institute a policy of
periodic renewals? Possibly;
A reduction in circulation.
More book~ being available to the people paying city taxes
for the library.
Less library personnel required to handle circulation.
More congestion on the shelves of libraries in the system
that are now crowded, by the return of books taken out by
the illesal cardholders.
An inqrease in the number of persons who would like to
retain their access to the library by buyins a nonresident
library card.
When the above proposal was offered to the library staff, they
were afraid of the impact upon the circulation desk with all the
renewals. Assuming a five year renewal cycle starting in 1992,
there would be two affects;
The first lnval ves .the cardholders who now would be required
to verify residence by some document showing a current
address.
Non-residents would not bother.
This would leave residents only, quantity unknown.
An immediate survey of cardholders would give a clue to
the real number.
The second would the re~ular renewals of Clearwater resi-
dents.
Assuming that the 79,430 figure based upon the 62.83%
is correct 1 and the library being open 300 days a year,
the daily average renewals for the five libraries would
be about 53 per day.
20 per day at Main
19 per day at East
11 per day at Countryside
2 per day at Beach
1 per day at North Greenwood
The city administration has recommended that a survey to deter-
mine the percentage of non-resident illegal cardholders be done
after the installation of the new oomputer system. Because of the
possible impact upon the budget for 1993 by the possible reduc-
tion in circulation and associated activities, it is recommended
"that;
The computer be used to analyze the number of cardholders by
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MINORITY REPORT '1'0 THE LONG RANGE PLANNING HEPORT
the number of years since they,registered to asses the
yearlY impact of regular reregistration for the first five
years.
The Commission ask the library staff to plan for and imple-
ment the survey within 60 days. Even a simple telephone
book check of cardholders addresses would give some clue as
to the extent of the problem.
The Commis~ion institute the regular renewal of cardholders
on a five year cycle which would not interfere too much with
library operations but would minimize illegal cardholders.
Install the five year renewal during 1992.
LIBRARY SPACE IN PRESENT FACILITIES
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The long range planning document talks about a number of possible
additional functions to be added to the library system that take
up space and recommends that this be done in the year 2000;
Space for the Clearwater Sun files (needed now).
Special collections such as the marine book collection at
the Beach ranch.
An independent learning center to supplement the school
system.
A computer center for both education and business.
Display space for fine arts and crafts.
A cable TV studio as promised by Vision Cable.
A 350 person auditorium.
A review of the present facilities would indicate that high
priority is not space for other functions but more space to make
the present facilities more usable by both the cardholders and
the staff.
MAIN LIBRARY
The shelves in the main library are filled beyond the
ability for users to use. The library is forced to use
the bottom and top shelves for books, making it very
difficult of short persons or ones with bifocal glasses
to reach or read titles on those shelves.
The working space varies from excellent in the data
prooessing/new book area on the third floor to the
ohopped up basement of what was the original early
1900's library and the W.P.A addition in the thirties.
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MT.NORI'I'Y REPORT '1'0 THE LONG RANGE PLANNING REPon'r
NORTH GREENWOOD
The librarYJ though small compared to East or Country
sideJ is not too crowded after send ins books to the new
Countryside library. There is space for additional
books on the top and bottom shelvesJ though this would
make these books difficult to get at.
The meeting room is small for any but limited size
meetings.
BEACH
The Beach library has reached its capacitYJ with most
of the shelving at peak capacity like the main library.
Seating space is minimal with the few tables close
together.
EAST AND COUNTRYSIDE
The two libraries have substantial book and other
spaces with good expansion capacity for the future.
The most pressing need for space is at the main library and this
is the one with greatest potential for more space being added to
the present structure.
A quick review of the bui lding shows some po.tential for added
space (reference 7);
The notched out northwest corner of the building has a
ground level space of about 3JOOO square feet.
Filling this in with a two story building would add
about 6JOOO square feet of space.
If the latest addition on the west side of the librarYJ
facing the Bay was build with foundations to support a third
floor,
Then a third floor on the new section would add 6JOOO
square feet to the library of space which would have
enough floor loading capacity to support book stacks.
In original expansion of the library along OsceolaJ the
floors were built with limited floor load capacitYJ so
the present reading room would have to stay where it
is, even though the west side offers a far superior
view of the bay.
The old library at the southeast corner of the library seems
to offer expnnsion room if it was torn down and replaced
with modern high capacity space.
A matching three floor additon would add 13J560 suare feet
of stack and office space to the library,
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MINORl'l'Y REPOltT '1'0 TlIE LONG RANGE PLANN rNO REfOR'l'
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But a discussion with the architect who drew up some expan-
sion plans several years ago indicates that there would be
two problems with doing this;
The two buildings, the original library and the WPA
addition, are of fairly heavy construction and would be
somewhat difficult to tear down. In addition, there
are electric power panels for the new additions in the
old building space.
The'second problem is what to do with the debris.
There are few places left to dump this in the county
and the cost of hauling out of the county would be
high.
By using the possibilities above. fillinS in the corner, third
floor on the new section and tearing down the old library, we
could add about 29,000 square feet of Sood library space.
The least costly would be a two floor addition at the northwest
corner. The others depend upon unknowns at the present time.
The long range planning report space requirements do not seem to
be able to be added to the library without taking space away from
the normal library functions:'
The 350 person meeting room may be needed by the city of
Clearwaters residents, but in the opinion of this board
member. stich a large room would seem to have limited use for
library functions.
If the city were to develop the Maas building for the city,
then suoh a meeting room would be ideal to inolude in the
building, There it would be available for both city and
library activities.
The same for the TV stl..-ldio. Perhaps the county school
system and the city could handle this jointlY as a project.
FUTURE LIBRARY CIRCULATION
There are several possible changes in the area served by the
library that are not covered in the long range planning report;
The state of Florida legislature, in their infinite wisdom,
might pass legislation merging the parts of the county now
completely surrounded by the city, into the city. The
impact on the library would be minimal.
Sooner or later, through the counties recognition that the
present county library program is not too effective in
delivering good library services to the citizens or through
legislation, they might change to a county wide library
system where Clearwater is going to be serving a part of the
county.
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MINORI'l'Y REPORT' TO 'l'HE LONG RANGE PLANNING REPORT
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REFERENCES
Ref. 1
Ref. 2
Ref. 3
Ref. 4
Ref. 5
Ref. a
Ref. 7
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If there are as many non-resident cardholders in the system
as there seem to be, we may ha.ve already felt .the impact of
the above by acoident. It is evident that the library oan
handle the volume, and the new computer system will assist
greatly.
The only goori thing that wi 1] come QU't of this I is that
there will be more money available from the county. The
cost to ClearwAter will be marginal costs) which this board
member has asked for in the past but never received. We
should develop these figures, as part of .the budgeting and
long range plan.
-"Bay area's growth rate takes a big dip", St. Pete
Times, December, 1991
-"Methodology for POPulation Estimates and
Projections", Clearwater Planning and DevelopmentJ
undated
-"Quinquennial POPulation Projection by District
Clearwater Planning Area", tables 12 and 12,
same source as ref. 2, undated
-pages a and 7J Long Range Planning Committee reportJ
undated
-"New Library Cards Issued"J page 4 same source as ref.
4J undated
-"Selected Florida Libraries - A Comparison (1988/89
figures) and Florida Minimum Standards II J library staff
report, undated
-"Main Library Layout", author, January, 1992
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Bay area's
gro\Nth rate
tal<os big dip
. A sluggish economy has
caused the population
boom to go bust in Tampa
Bay, and it may be a willIe
before things get better.
By BILL ADAIR and STEVE UESMAN
nrn..SbrfWriIMI
During the population boom of
the rnid-1980s, the roads to Tam-
pa Bay carried a steady stream of
moving vans. The bay area grew
by 150 people every day.
Now, the stream is only a trick-
le. The area grows by only 33
people each day and growth has
slowed to its lowest level in 20
years, according to the tat est esti-
mates Crom the University oC Flori-
da,
The dramatic slowdown during
the recession exposes how the bay
area's economy is addicted to
growth. Without a big dose of new
people, the local economy suffers
more than other Florida regions
, that have a more diverse base of
businesS, analysts said.
The entire state could pay a
price. Since growth probably won't
pick up again until the economy .
turns around in other parts of the
nation, Florida likely will suffer
longer fram the recession, some
economists said.
The stream of moving vans
could increase lilightly in the next
two years when the econOD1Y
bounces back, demographerl:l and
economists predict. But looming
on the horizon are some major
demographic shifts - fewer peo-
ple in their 20a and fewer retireea
- that suggest there wun't be
another population boom for more
than decade.
Right now, the bay area is be-
ing hit from two sides. .
"What we have now are bad
Already, the cJfct;U of the
gruwlll lilowtlUWIl ~an be see 11
throughuut the area:
.. The sales ~taff at I.argo-
based Bob's Ci.lCJ)Ct Mart Inc, sold
lIlore than l-lI1i11ioll square yards
(If caqlcl two y~ar:> ago. Thill'S
down to allullt aoo,OOo S(luare
yards this year. The chain has
dUlled 1 wo of its 15 storc:i anJ
rcdu~cd ils work force Ly tllJimt 10
percent.
II Two years il~O, workers
frolll Paragon Calllc !>trllng enough
f1CW callie in I1i1l"burough CUllllly
to stretch frolll Tampa to }at:ksun-
vHlc, ahout :.100 mil<<::i' wOl.th. Next
year, the cahle cOIupany expects to
ILlY only 35 milt:9 of new caL!c,
which woulJ reach ouly fl'OfIl ~l. .
PctersLJurg to nl'ad~ntoll.
iii ll~ 1988, FloriJa Power
Corp. hookeu up 14,000 new deL:-
tric connections in PiudlJ:l allJ
l'asco coullties. This y~ar, the
company estimates il will connect
only half that lIlullbcr.
You can blame much of the
growth slump on the recession,
, Many retirees in northern
states haven't been able to sell
their homes. And many younger
workers aren't lIIoving here be::-
t;iJIISC there aren't tllOllilh j....L:I.
Peter Frallcl:!l~, puLlislH:r of
A ltIt!ri(a" n.:mograf.hics rllag:a-
zill~, said feWer tICoIJ C lOove dur-
ing a rccl!ssion.
"When housing values start to
fall, cVt:rylJOdy f<llls'ill place," he
said, ,
The decline in growth has af-
fected the enlire state. ,In 19a7'1
Florida was flooded With more
than 900 ncw pClltJlc per day. ac.
cording to tile Imccall's c:itianates.
Now there arc only 461) f1L:W("OII1-
ers daily. .'
Out the Tampa Bay area has
sufh:rcd disprOjllllliollatcly.
Orli.llldo, fur example, is half
the site of the Lay area Lul lias
sustained much fasler growth -
eV~1I durillg the slulllp. Till: latest
eslil1lalC says Orlalldo's net migra-
tion is aboul ti5 people l:V~ry d,1Y,
about tluuhle the tlLlulhcr !<.lr lhe
b:lY area.
20,000
Quarterly not
migration into
florJda
0'81 '83 'BS '87 'BD '91
Quarterly not
4,000 mlgrallon Inlo
2.000 Tampa Bay area
o '81 '83 '85' '07 '89 '81
Soo,jlCO: aUlDIIU 01 EconomiC ond
Bu~lno$" Aosonrctl, UnlvorsiLy or Florida
TIm.. .rt
demographics and bad econom~
ics," said Jim Hosler, director of
economic development and re-
search for Hilbborough's planning
commission. j'It's going to be diffi.
cult for local govcrlUucntli to pay
the bi11s in the next several years."
Plaase see GROWTH 2A
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Milch of the e('tmomlc ntIt~de r
in the bllY :lrca relic!! on new rt!sl.
dents. '
The cl)nstruction Industry I
nc~ds new famlllc!l to buy huuses.
1 he b;mkinq lndu'lhy counts on I
new depn!lits, and lumber compa-
. nics sell wood for new homes.
E.'en ~r)v('rmnent employment -
which provides one In seven jobs In
fljJlsbl)rollRh - rises and raUs with
the Rrowth rate.
Slower Rrowth ha!! b:1ltcred
tlm bay nrca construction induslry.
Bctwcmt 1985 and 1990, PinelJag
and llillsborough counties lost
about 10,000 construction jobs.
Meanwhile, Darle, Ilroward. Du-
val, Orange and Palm Beach coun-
tics combined lost onl}' <1.200. ac-
I cording to nosier of the Hillsbor-
ough planning commission.
Newcomers are especially vital
to the economic health of Pillcllas, '
Pasco and Hernando counties be.
caU!1C those counties have more
denths thiln births every year. The
counties must have new residents
every }'c:Jr just to keep their popu.
lations from shrinking.
nosier Mid the bay area rclles
heavily on growth.related compa-
nies, white :lren!! !i1tc Orlando and
Miami h~ve benefited frotn ather
types of busines!l - Ruch as the
cntertllinment industry and lnter-
natiollill trade.
Jack Critchfield, chainn:1I1 of
St. Petersburg.bllsed Florida
Progress Corp.. said the entire
sl;ite h:l9 been too dependent on
growth. He'd like to attract new
cornp:lltiC9 to Ute bay area that
aren't affected by a growth slow-
down.
"If we don't get Ollr IIct togeth-
er and recruit new employers.
we're not going to be able to com-
pete with Orlando," Critchfield
said.
Paul R. Griffin, executive di-
rector or the Pasco County Com-
mittee of 100, said Pasco needs to
attract more businesses that are
not "dependent on housing
startS."
Out some economists think the
growth numbers may exaggerate
the recession's effects on Tampa
Bay.
"ThinRs are pretty good in
Tampa," s.,id John Godfrey, senior
vice. president and chief economist
at Darnett Banks Inc. in Jackson-
ville. "The slowdown is primarily
cyclical. It's not a sign thnt Florida
is not going to be growing in the
future or that Tampa Day is not
going to be growing. It's a rather
short-run phenomenon."
Pine lias County may not be
growing as much as It was In the
mid.1980s, !!aid D;lvid Knowlton,
president of the PincU.,s Economic
Development Council, but there
are sUU plenty of new residents.
"We still have substnntial
growth," Knowlton s.,id. "We've
Rot a diverse ecohomy, ,It's a ma-
ture economy And we have ~ wider
array of business types than the
Orlando metro area."
But some economists said a
growth slowdown creates a spirnl.
Less Rrowth means fewer jobs, and
fewer jobs me:tns less growth.
"It's a snowball effect," said
Carol Taylor West, head of fore-
casting for the Aureauof Er.onomic
and Ousiness Research at the Uni.
versity of Florida. '
....~... ,,_......... ......... ,. -........... .
That tramlntes Into fewer peo-
ple to share the costs for roads,
sewers and big Rovernment proj-
ects such as the Florida SunCollst
Dome and the TamplI Convention
Center.
HlUs-borough County had to in-
crease water rates to existing cus.
tomers this year because not
enough new people moved in to
offset the costs for the $500.mll-
lion debt Issues.
. All 'of this could tnlllslnte lnto a
longer recession for Florida, West
said. Florid,,'s builders can't begin
hiring again untit potentia! retirees
sell their homes in other states.
And younger people won't look
here for opportunity until the state
begins creating jobs.
Even when we do recover,
don't expect a return to the boom
times of the 1980s. Looming in the
future, experts say, are some siz.
able population shifts that will
make Florida's growth much
smaller this decade.
Two groups makes up the
lion's share of new Florida resi.
dents: retirees and people in their
209, demographers said. And there
arc fewer people in both agc
groups than there were in the last
decade.
Americans ncarinR retirement
age were born during the Dep~s.
sian, when the nation's birth ratc
was low. Bnby boomers, mean.
while, are out of their 20s but are
not ready to retire. So there's a
smnller pool of people likely to
move to Florida,
The slate grew by 33 percent
in the 1980s, but it's eJllpected to
grow by only 22 percent this de.
cade, according to the l:ttest Uni.
versity of Florida estimates.
Francese. . the magazine pub-
Iisher, said the bay area could get a
smnller share of that growth be-
cause of its reputation. {or urban
conRestion. "Von't hold your
breath wailing for Tampa to Rrow
asnin," he said, "because you may
have already seen it."
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